IPL playoffs scenarios: With 12 matches to go, Gujarat Titans have 99.2 % chance of progressing — odds for each team explained

With 12 league games remaining, CSK, RR, SRH, and KKR are out of playoff contention. GT, RCB, and PBKS are almost certain to advance, while MI and DC have a fair chance, and LSG's chances are slim. Despite 4,096 possible result combinations, probabilities suggest RCB, GT, and PBKS have high chances of making the top four. For instance, GT finish in the top two in 2,800 of the possible combinations of match outcomes, translating to a 68.4% chance of being first or second, singly or jointly.
IPL playoffs scenarios: With 12 matches to go, Gujarat Titans have 99.2 % chance of progressing — odds for each team explained
Image credit: BCCI/IPL
NEW DELHI: With 12 games remaining in the league stage, CSK, RR, SRH and KKR are already out of contention for the playoffs. GT, RCB and PBKS are almost sure to make the knock-out stage, but MI and DC still have an even chance while LSG have slim chances.
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There remain 4,096 possible combinations of results, so nothing is for sure yet for any of the six remaining in the race.
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We look at the probabilities:
Team

Best case scenario

Worst case scenario

Chances (%) of making or tying for top 4

Chances (%) of making or tying for top 2

RCB

Sole topper with 21 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games and GT lose at least one

End up tied fourth. Can happen if they lose all their remaining games

100.0

79.7

GT

Sole topper with 22 pts. Can happen if they win their remaining games

Finish 5th by losing all remaining games

99.2

68.4

PBKS

Sole topper with 21 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games and both RCB and GT lose at least one

Finish 6th by losing all remaining games

90.2

52.0

MI

Sole topper with 18 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games, RCB and GT lose their remaining games, PBKS lose two and DC one

Finish 6th by losing all remaining games

60.2

12.5

DC

Sole topper with 19 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games and RCB, GT and PBKS lose two each

Finish 7th by losing all the remaining games

58.2

18.0

LSG

Finish tied 3rd on 16 pts with MI and GT. Can happen if they win remaining games, RCB and GT lose all of theirs, MI lose one and either PBKS also lose all their games or DC wins no more than one

Finish 8th by losing all the remaining games

7.4

0.0

How we arrive at the probabilities: There are 4,096 possible combinations of results remaining with 12 games to go. For each team, we looked at how many of these end up with them being among the top four either singly or tied. We also looked at how many combinations put each team in the top two either singly or jointly. For instance, GT finish in the top two in 2,800 of the possible combinations of match outcomes, translating to a 68.4% chance of being first or second, singly or jointly.

Get IPL 2025 match schedules, squads, points table, and live scores for CSK, MI, RCB, KKR, SRH, LSG, DC, GT, PBKS, and RR. Check the latest IPL Orange Cap and Purple Cap standings.

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